European economy in September continues to slow down.
At least it is suggested by recent PMI indices. In general industrial PMI has
dropped to 50.5 (the minimum since July 2013), and service PMI has dropped to
52.8, renewing February minimum. The most worrying situation is in France,
where both PMI indices are below 50. The numbers suggest contraction of
both sectors of economy of France.
If downfall of European economy recurs,
then the ECB efforts on the struggle with low inflation will demand a lot of
resources. Last year Draghi didn’t want to notice risk of coming problems, cherishing
hope to do without stimulating programs.
It is worth mentioning that France is very
sensitive to the loss of mechanisms of managing national finance. The view is
supported by victory of national front on May elections to Euro parliament.
Basically by demanding to bring deficit to the norm of 3% of the GDP, Brussels
increases electoral base of skeptics. The moment of truth will come at 2017,
when there will be parliamentary and presidential elections.
Since the government of socialists was not ready
to proceed with painful structural reforms, which lead to contraction of a lot
of social benefits, then the only way for economy to get back on growth track
was launch of monetary incentives. Programs of quantitative easing could be
criticized, but for example emission in British managed to bring growth back to
UK economy. The first and the second quarters are closed by positive dynamics
of the GDP at 0.8%.
If Brussels with Berlin support is going to make
a lot of states undertake new spending cuts, then almost for sure next
elections will lead to a new wave of governments change, as it has already
happened during debt crisis.
National front in France and 5 start movements
in Italy now seem to be very strong. For instance a few years ago Scotland
independence was supported by only 30%, and on recent referendum 45% support
independence already.
http://www.fx77.com/?lang=en
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